Development of a Dynamic Prediction Model for Crohn's Disease-Related Intestinal Surgery Using Longitudinal Indices of Routine Blood Tests: A Single-Center Retrospective Cohort Study

Brief summary (registry, in English)

This single-center retrospective cohort study aims to develop and internally validate a dynamic prediction model that uses longitudinal data from routinely collected blood tests to continuously assess the risk of Crohn's disease (CD)-related intestinal surgery, and to construct a simplified tool for clinical application. Patients with a confirmed diagnosis of CD and serial routine blood tests available during long-term follow-up will be included. Longitudinal trajectories of laboratory markers will be characterized, and their association with CD-related intestinal surgery will be evaluated. A full-variable dynamic prediction model will be built using dynamic random survival forest methodology, and a parsimonious model incorporating only the core laboratory markers will be developed via Bayesian joint model. The goal is to establish a practical, non-invasive, and dynamic risk assessment framework to support the transition from reactive to proactive long-term management of CD.

What you commit to

• Study type: Observational
• Participants enrolled: 500
• From 1 Jan 2010 to the primary completion date, 31 Dec 2019
• No sites listed in no country
• Visits and tests: ask the trial team, the registry does not list them

Built from the registry fields of ClinicalTrials.gov. It describes the study, not your situation.

Who cannot take part

Copied verbatim from ClinicalTrials.gov and grouped by topic. Only the trial team decides who can take part.

Who the study is looking for

Sex: All · Does not accept healthy volunteers

Full criteria on ClinicalTrials.gov