Estimating 2-year risk of first relapse in ANCA-associated vasculitis: derivation of a risk-prediction model based on participants in the PEXIVAS trial.

What was studied

This was a post hoc analysis of the PEXIVAS trial. The patients had ANCA-associated vasculitis (AAV) with kidney or lung bleeding problems. They had reached remission. The team built a model for the risk of a first relapse in 2 years. They picked predictors from past studies and tested them. 649 trial participants were included.

What they found

100 of the 649 people relapsed in the 2 years after remission. The final model used sex and the induction drug, cyclophosphamide or rituximab. It also used ANCA subtype and organ involvement at the start. Kidney function at remission was included too. The area under the curve was 0.709. The calibration slope was 0.99.

What it means for patients

The authors said their model estimates first relapse risk in the 2 years after remission. They said it may inform monitoring and treatment decisions.

Why it is not certain yet

The authors said the model needs outside validation. It was built from one trial's data. Only people with kidney or lung problems at entry were in it. This was a post hoc analysis.

Source

Estimating 2-year risk of first relapse in ANCA-associated vasculitis: derivation of a risk-prediction model based on participants in the PEXIVAS trial.

We restate facts from the source record in our own words. The original wording belongs to its publisher.